A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
