Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
